Signal WARP Report Card This is a summary of my model's performance in predicting the results of games. It contains historical data as well. ATS data is not included, as I do not condone betting. [SEASON 2025] Week 1 2025: RMSE = 17.147; MAE = 13.041; ACCURACY = 0.750 over 48 games Week 2 2025: RMSE = 15.512; MAE = 11.532; ACCURACY = 0.760 over 50 games Week 3 2025: RMSE = 18.312; MAE = 14.038; ACCURACY = 0.702 over 47 games Week 4 2025: RMSE = 17.118; MAE = 12.627; ACCURACY = 0.720 over 50 games Week 5 2025: RMSE = 13.208; MAE = 9.638; ACCURACY = 0.725 over 51 games Week 6 2025: RMSE = 13.986; MAE = 11.310; ACCURACY = 0.700 over 50 games Week 7 2025: RMSE = 18.027; MAE = 14.216; ACCURACY = 0.750 over 56 games Week 8 2025: RMSE = 15.539; MAE = 12.760; ACCURACY = 0.695 over 59 games Week 9 2025: RMSE = 13.208; MAE = 11.055; ACCURACY = 0.774 over 53 games Week 10 2025: RMSE = 17.110; MAE = 13.557; ACCURACY = 0.673 over 52 games Week 11 2025: RMSE = 15.094; MAE = 11.558; ACCURACY = 0.647 over 51 games Week 12 2025: RMSE = 14.942; MAE = 11.525; ACCURACY = 0.810 over 58 games Week 13 2025: RMSE = 14.603; MAE = 12.046; ACCURACY = 0.800 over 60 games Week 14 2025: RMSE = 15.494; MAE = 12.934; ACCURACY = 0.701 over 67 games - 2025 overall MSE = 246.803 - 2025 overall RMSE = 15.710 points - 2025 overall Mean Error = 12.284 points - 2025 overall Bias = -0.254 points - 2025 overall Correct Picks = 73.01% (549/752) [SEASON 2024] Week 1 2024: RMSE = 16.917; MAE = 13.785; ACCURACY = 0.647 over 85 games Week 2 2024: RMSE = 18.287; MAE = 14.310; ACCURACY = 0.694 over 49 games Week 3 2024: RMSE = 18.994; MAE = 15.279; ACCURACY = 0.808 over 52 games Week 4 2024: RMSE = 15.623; MAE = 12.249; ACCURACY = 0.778 over 54 games Week 5 2024: RMSE = 16.243; MAE = 12.708; ACCURACY = 0.692 over 52 games Week 6 2024: RMSE = 16.148; MAE = 12.714; ACCURACY = 0.694 over 49 games Week 7 2024: RMSE = 14.824; MAE = 11.508; ACCURACY = 0.712 over 52 games Week 8 2024: RMSE = 15.537; MAE = 12.507; ACCURACY = 0.644 over 59 games Week 9 2024: RMSE = 15.543; MAE = 12.775; ACCURACY = 0.768 over 56 games Week 10 2024: RMSE = 16.726; MAE = 14.359; ACCURACY = 0.604 over 48 games Week 11 2024: RMSE = 13.775; MAE = 11.405; ACCURACY = 0.780 over 50 games Week 12 2024: RMSE = 15.972; MAE = 12.448; ACCURACY = 0.679 over 53 games Week 13 2024: RMSE = 14.430; MAE = 12.025; ACCURACY = 0.694 over 62 games Week 14 2024: RMSE = 15.404; MAE = 11.584; ACCURACY = 0.761 over 67 games Week 15 2024: RMSE = 23.505; MAE = 20.468; ACCURACY = 0.333 over 9 games Week 16 2024: RMSE = 22.783; MAE = 22.783; ACCURACY = 0.000 over 1 games - 2024 overall MSE = 262.013 - 2024 overall RMSE = 16.187 points - 2024 overall Mean Error = 12.923 points - 2024 overall Bias = 0.295 points - 2024 overall Correct Picks = 70.43% (562/798) [SEASON 2023] Week 1 2023: RMSE = 19.063; MAE = 14.981; ACCURACY = 0.723 over 94 games Week 2 2023: RMSE = 14.182; MAE = 11.949; ACCURACY = 0.723 over 47 games Week 3 2023: RMSE = 16.610; MAE = 13.288; ACCURACY = 0.722 over 54 games Week 4 2023: RMSE = 12.772; MAE = 9.958; ACCURACY = 0.825 over 63 games Week 5 2023: RMSE = 12.778; MAE = 10.559; ACCURACY = 0.786 over 56 games Week 6 2023: RMSE = 15.235; MAE = 12.151; ACCURACY = 0.714 over 49 games Week 7 2023: RMSE = 16.868; MAE = 14.189; ACCURACY = 0.691 over 55 games Week 8 2023: RMSE = 17.282; MAE = 14.008; ACCURACY = 0.667 over 54 games Week 9 2023: RMSE = 15.817; MAE = 13.246; ACCURACY = 0.741 over 54 games Week 10 2023: RMSE = 15.409; MAE = 11.669; ACCURACY = 0.694 over 62 games Week 11 2023: RMSE = 18.769; MAE = 14.996; ACCURACY = 0.719 over 64 games Week 12 2023: RMSE = 15.244; MAE = 11.061; ACCURACY = 0.797 over 64 games Week 13 2023: RMSE = 15.747; MAE = 12.176; ACCURACY = 0.769 over 65 games Week 14 2023: RMSE = 13.928; MAE = 12.260; ACCURACY = 0.600 over 10 games Week 15 2023: RMSE = 4.086; MAE = 4.086; ACCURACY = 1.000 over 1 games - 2023 overall MSE = 258.589 - 2023 overall RMSE = 16.081 points - 2023 overall Mean Error = 12.706 points - 2023 overall Bias = 0.703 points - 2023 overall Correct Picks = 73.61% (583/792) [SEASON 2022] Week 1 2022: RMSE = 18.722; MAE = 14.691; ACCURACY = 0.579 over 95 games Week 2 2022: RMSE = 14.203; MAE = 11.674; ACCURACY = 0.745 over 47 games Week 3 2022: RMSE = 17.913; MAE = 15.061; ACCURACY = 0.740 over 50 games Week 4 2022: RMSE = 15.394; MAE = 12.639; ACCURACY = 0.700 over 60 games Week 5 2022: RMSE = 15.591; MAE = 12.773; ACCURACY = 0.684 over 57 games Week 6 2022: RMSE = 16.031; MAE = 12.524; ACCURACY = 0.754 over 57 games Week 7 2022: RMSE = 14.789; MAE = 11.303; ACCURACY = 0.745 over 51 games Week 8 2022: RMSE = 14.765; MAE = 12.130; ACCURACY = 0.654 over 52 games Week 9 2022: RMSE = 17.267; MAE = 12.882; ACCURACY = 0.723 over 47 games Week 10 2022: RMSE = 14.438; MAE = 11.241; ACCURACY = 0.683 over 60 games Week 11 2022: RMSE = 15.049; MAE = 12.403; ACCURACY = 0.766 over 64 games Week 12 2022: RMSE = 16.211; MAE = 12.552; ACCURACY = 0.705 over 61 games Week 13 2022: RMSE = 17.411; MAE = 12.820; ACCURACY = 0.730 over 63 games Week 14 2022: RMSE = 12.782; MAE = 11.037; ACCURACY = 0.818 over 11 games Week 15 2022: RMSE = 8.885; MAE = 8.885; ACCURACY = 0.000 over 1 games - 2022 overall MSE = 260.380 - 2022 overall RMSE = 16.136 points - 2022 overall Mean Error = 12.735 points - 2022 overall Bias = 1.227 points - 2022 overall Correct Picks = 70.23% (545/776) [SEASON 2021] Week 1 2021: RMSE = 18.590; MAE = 15.006; ACCURACY = 0.602 over 88 games Week 2 2021: RMSE = 16.028; MAE = 13.279; ACCURACY = 0.822 over 45 games Week 3 2021: RMSE = 15.534; MAE = 12.539; ACCURACY = 0.827 over 52 games Week 4 2021: RMSE = 16.465; MAE = 13.024; ACCURACY = 0.759 over 58 games Week 5 2021: RMSE = 18.282; MAE = 14.792; ACCURACY = 0.656 over 61 games Week 6 2021: RMSE = 14.191; MAE = 11.104; ACCURACY = 0.686 over 51 games Week 7 2021: RMSE = 16.654; MAE = 14.192; ACCURACY = 0.725 over 51 games Week 8 2021: RMSE = 15.980; MAE = 12.942; ACCURACY = 0.679 over 53 games Week 9 2021: RMSE = 12.897; MAE = 11.105; ACCURACY = 0.679 over 53 games Week 10 2021: RMSE = 14.806; MAE = 12.128; ACCURACY = 0.712 over 59 games Week 11 2021: RMSE = 14.875; MAE = 11.378; ACCURACY = 0.783 over 60 games Week 12 2021: RMSE = 17.784; MAE = 14.431; ACCURACY = 0.790 over 62 games Week 13 2021: RMSE = 16.628; MAE = 13.466; ACCURACY = 0.692 over 65 games Week 14 2021: RMSE = 20.673; MAE = 17.663; ACCURACY = 0.455 over 11 games Week 15 2021: RMSE = 17.709; MAE = 17.709; ACCURACY = 0.000 over 1 games - 2021 overall MSE = 267.794 - 2021 overall RMSE = 16.364 points - 2021 overall Mean Error = 13.211 points - 2021 overall Bias = 1.495 points - 2021 overall Correct Picks = 71.30% (549/770) [SEASON 2020] Week 1 2020: RMSE = 22.392; MAE = 17.682; ACCURACY = 0.710 over 31 games Week 2 2020: RMSE = 15.535; MAE = 12.914; ACCURACY = 0.643 over 14 games Week 3 2020: RMSE = 18.126; MAE = 14.573; ACCURACY = 0.533 over 15 games Week 4 2020: RMSE = 18.672; MAE = 13.989; ACCURACY = 0.815 over 27 games Week 5 2020: RMSE = 13.923; MAE = 10.830; ACCURACY = 0.643 over 28 games Week 6 2020: RMSE = 17.257; MAE = 14.490; ACCURACY = 0.704 over 27 games Week 7 2020: RMSE = 14.855; MAE = 11.410; ACCURACY = 0.741 over 27 games Week 8 2020: RMSE = 15.442; MAE = 12.652; ACCURACY = 0.727 over 44 games Week 9 2020: RMSE = 19.370; MAE = 15.458; ACCURACY = 0.744 over 43 games Week 10 2020: RMSE = 17.111; MAE = 13.745; ACCURACY = 0.729 over 48 games Week 11 2020: RMSE = 14.528; MAE = 11.410; ACCURACY = 0.886 over 44 games Week 12 2020: RMSE = 16.071; MAE = 12.306; ACCURACY = 0.756 over 41 games Week 13 2020: RMSE = 16.315; MAE = 14.072; ACCURACY = 0.705 over 44 games Week 14 2020: RMSE = 17.548; MAE = 13.842; ACCURACY = 0.733 over 45 games Week 15 2020: RMSE = 18.006; MAE = 13.504; ACCURACY = 0.730 over 37 games Week 16 2020: RMSE = 13.097; MAE = 11.193; ACCURACY = 0.632 over 19 games - 2020 overall MSE = 288.520 - 2020 overall RMSE = 16.986 points - 2020 overall Mean Error = 13.427 points - 2020 overall Bias = 2.187 points - 2020 overall Correct Picks = 73.03% (390/534) [SEASON 2019] Week 1 2019: RMSE = 16.778; MAE = 12.754; ACCURACY = 0.718 over 85 games Week 2 2019: RMSE = 17.105; MAE = 12.632; ACCURACY = 0.804 over 46 games Week 3 2019: RMSE = 15.776; MAE = 12.613; ACCURACY = 0.771 over 48 games Week 4 2019: RMSE = 15.044; MAE = 12.081; ACCURACY = 0.755 over 49 games Week 5 2019: RMSE = 17.978; MAE = 13.844; ACCURACY = 0.784 over 51 games Week 6 2019: RMSE = 13.381; MAE = 10.172; ACCURACY = 0.667 over 48 games Week 7 2019: RMSE = 15.453; MAE = 12.092; ACCURACY = 0.692 over 52 games Week 8 2019: RMSE = 16.183; MAE = 13.289; ACCURACY = 0.738 over 61 games Week 9 2019: RMSE = 16.757; MAE = 14.273; ACCURACY = 0.655 over 55 games Week 10 2019: RMSE = 16.632; MAE = 13.465; ACCURACY = 0.787 over 47 games Week 11 2019: RMSE = 15.347; MAE = 12.744; ACCURACY = 0.583 over 48 games Week 12 2019: RMSE = 16.837; MAE = 12.586; ACCURACY = 0.745 over 51 games Week 13 2019: RMSE = 14.882; MAE = 11.356; ACCURACY = 0.759 over 58 games Week 14 2019: RMSE = 14.342; MAE = 11.695; ACCURACY = 0.828 over 64 games Week 15 2019: RMSE = 15.189; MAE = 11.615; ACCURACY = 0.818 over 11 games - 2019 overall MSE = 254.069 - 2019 overall RMSE = 15.940 points - 2019 overall Mean Error = 12.536 points - 2019 overall Bias = -0.218 points - 2019 overall Correct Picks = 73.64% (570/774) [SEASON 2018] Week 1 2018: RMSE = 20.676; MAE = 16.852; ACCURACY = 0.643 over 84 games Week 2 2018: RMSE = 17.799; MAE = 14.685; ACCURACY = 0.694 over 49 games Week 3 2018: RMSE = 17.422; MAE = 13.426; ACCURACY = 0.755 over 49 games Week 4 2018: RMSE = 17.105; MAE = 12.874; ACCURACY = 0.745 over 55 games Week 5 2018: RMSE = 13.605; MAE = 11.088; ACCURACY = 0.745 over 55 games Week 6 2018: RMSE = 17.426; MAE = 13.557; ACCURACY = 0.679 over 56 games Week 7 2018: RMSE = 15.839; MAE = 12.510; ACCURACY = 0.778 over 54 games Week 8 2018: RMSE = 15.122; MAE = 12.723; ACCURACY = 0.833 over 54 games Week 9 2018: RMSE = 15.727; MAE = 12.350; ACCURACY = 0.600 over 55 games Week 10 2018: RMSE = 16.600; MAE = 13.217; ACCURACY = 0.705 over 61 games Week 11 2018: RMSE = 14.076; MAE = 11.229; ACCURACY = 0.787 over 61 games Week 12 2018: RMSE = 15.403; MAE = 12.289; ACCURACY = 0.817 over 60 games Week 13 2018: RMSE = 17.401; MAE = 13.544; ACCURACY = 0.719 over 64 games Week 14 2018: RMSE = 11.904; MAE = 8.565; ACCURACY = 0.786 over 14 games Week 15 2018: RMSE = 11.648; MAE = 11.648; ACCURACY = 1.000 over 1 games - 2018 overall MSE = 276.829 - 2018 overall RMSE = 16.638 points - 2018 overall Mean Error = 13.133 points - 2018 overall Bias = 0.837 points - 2018 overall Correct Picks = 72.93% (563/772) [SEASON 2017] Week 1 2017: RMSE = 17.794; MAE = 14.579; ACCURACY = 0.667 over 84 games Week 2 2017: RMSE = 17.347; MAE = 14.598; ACCURACY = 0.717 over 46 games Week 3 2017: RMSE = 17.211; MAE = 13.892; ACCURACY = 0.824 over 51 games Week 4 2017: RMSE = 16.851; MAE = 12.922; ACCURACY = 0.679 over 56 games Week 5 2017: RMSE = 17.051; MAE = 13.685; ACCURACY = 0.792 over 53 games Week 6 2017: RMSE = 15.789; MAE = 13.084; ACCURACY = 0.684 over 57 games Week 7 2017: RMSE = 16.745; MAE = 13.608; ACCURACY = 0.610 over 59 games Week 8 2017: RMSE = 19.350; MAE = 15.510; ACCURACY = 0.696 over 56 games Week 9 2017: RMSE = 17.161; MAE = 13.381; ACCURACY = 0.691 over 55 games Week 10 2017: RMSE = 14.521; MAE = 11.392; ACCURACY = 0.672 over 61 games Week 11 2017: RMSE = 14.134; MAE = 10.842; ACCURACY = 0.763 over 59 games Week 12 2017: RMSE = 16.167; MAE = 12.216; ACCURACY = 0.700 over 60 games Week 13 2017: RMSE = 16.785; MAE = 13.455; ACCURACY = 0.758 over 62 games Week 14 2017: RMSE = 15.883; MAE = 12.632; ACCURACY = 0.812 over 16 games Week 15 2017: RMSE = 6.496; MAE = 6.496; ACCURACY = 0.000 over 1 games - 2017 overall MSE = 279.186 - 2017 overall RMSE = 16.709 points - 2017 overall Mean Error = 13.295 points - 2017 overall Bias = 0.457 points - 2017 overall Correct Picks = 71.01% (551/776) [SEASON 2016] Week 1 2016: RMSE = 17.095; MAE = 13.249; ACCURACY = 0.646 over 82 games Week 2 2016: RMSE = 14.199; MAE = 11.707; ACCURACY = 0.891 over 46 games Week 3 2016: RMSE = 18.277; MAE = 13.463; ACCURACY = 0.818 over 55 games Week 4 2016: RMSE = 17.302; MAE = 12.952; ACCURACY = 0.692 over 52 games Week 5 2016: RMSE = 16.026; MAE = 12.565; ACCURACY = 0.712 over 59 games Week 6 2016: RMSE = 17.511; MAE = 13.298; ACCURACY = 0.667 over 54 games Week 7 2016: RMSE = 14.406; MAE = 11.342; ACCURACY = 0.792 over 53 games Week 8 2016: RMSE = 15.893; MAE = 12.643; ACCURACY = 0.685 over 54 games Week 9 2016: RMSE = 15.453; MAE = 12.819; ACCURACY = 0.673 over 52 games Week 10 2016: RMSE = 19.655; MAE = 15.517; ACCURACY = 0.814 over 59 games Week 11 2016: RMSE = 16.479; MAE = 13.086; ACCURACY = 0.707 over 58 games Week 12 2016: RMSE = 19.541; MAE = 15.529; ACCURACY = 0.724 over 58 games Week 13 2016: RMSE = 18.995; MAE = 14.389; ACCURACY = 0.705 over 61 games Week 14 2016: RMSE = 14.863; MAE = 12.281; ACCURACY = 0.750 over 16 games Week 15 2016: RMSE = 13.281; MAE = 13.281; ACCURACY = 0.000 over 1 games - 2016 overall MSE = 292.577 - 2016 overall RMSE = 17.105 points - 2016 overall Mean Error = 13.305 points - 2016 overall Bias = 0.304 points - 2016 overall Correct Picks = 72.76% (553/760)