Signal WARP Report Card

This is a summary of my model's performance in
predicting the results of games. It contains historical data
as well. ATS data is not included, as I do not condone betting.


[SEASON 2025]

VEGAS OPENING LINE (as of 19/01/2026): MAE = 12.07 ACROSS 456 GAMES

SOURCE: https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=mse&type=2&year=25

USING SECOND-HALF DATA AS I DO NOT USE RECRUITING OR TALENT INFORMATION

Week  8 2025: RMSE = 15.470; MAE = 12.487; ACCURACY = 0.746 over 59 games
Week  9 2025: RMSE = 13.052; MAE = 10.862; ACCURACY = 0.774 over 53 games
Week 10 2025: RMSE = 17.263; MAE = 13.351; ACCURACY = 0.654 over 52 games
Week 11 2025: RMSE = 15.013; MAE = 11.579; ACCURACY = 0.667 over 51 games
Week 12 2025: RMSE = 15.054; MAE = 11.560; ACCURACY = 0.776 over 58 games
Week 13 2025: RMSE = 14.368; MAE = 11.832; ACCURACY = 0.800 over 60 games
Week 14 2025: RMSE = 15.323; MAE = 12.714; ACCURACY = 0.746 over 67 games
Week 15 2025: RMSE = 13.553; MAE = 11.425; ACCURACY = 0.667 over  9 games
Week 16 2025: RMSE =  2.008; MAE =  2.008; ACCURACY = 1.000 over  1 games
Week 17 2025: RMSE = 14.669; MAE = 11.962; ACCURACY = 0.565 over 46 games

- 2025 overall MSE           = 225.787
- 2025 overall RMSE          = 15.026 points
- 2025 overall Mean Error    = 12.028 points
- 2025 overall Bias          = 0.030 points
- 2025 overall Correct Picks = 72.15% (329/456)